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We offer our customers, referred to as "guests," fashionable, differentiated merchandise and everyday essentials at discounted prices. We operate as a single segment designed to enable guests to purchase products seamlessly in stores or through our digital channels.
$139.60
$0.61 (-0.44%)
EOD Jul 17, 2026
Operating margin is thin at 4.88%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.
Revenue declined 1.7% YoY. The question is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift.
Free cash flow declined 37% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened. Net debt of $12.38B represents 4.4x FCF, leverage limits flexibility.
18.4x earnings, 21.0x FCF. Valuation is in a reasonable range. The main question is whether the business can re-accelerate or if current trajectory is already priced in.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$106.38B
▼ -1.7% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$3.45B
▼ -9.4% YoY
Op. Margin
4.49%
▼ -0.3pp YoY
ROIC
10.53%
▼ -1.6pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$3.03B
▼ -36.7% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$7.00B
▼ -10.9% YoY
Net Debt
$15.30B
Cash & Equiv.
$3.53B
5Y CAGR: +2.3%
5Y CAGR: -18.5%
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At a P/E of 18.4 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 21.0, Target (TGT) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $81.68 per share, so at $139.60 the stock looks overvalued (41.5% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Target scores 46/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a mixed business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 3.2%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $81.68 per share for TGT, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $61.26. At today's $139.60, that puts the stock about 41.5% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Target scores 46 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a mixed business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 4.5% operating margin and a 10.5% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
Yes, Target pays a regular dividend of about $4.52 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 3.2% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 59.7% of earnings, so the dividend is well covered. Target has grown the dividend at roughly 7.3% a year over the past few years. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For TGT's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. TGT currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 46/100 on quality (mixed). It also yields about 3.2%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.