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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$61.26
Intrinsic $81.68 · 25% MOS
Current price: $122.57
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Target Corp (TGT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3.0B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $81.68 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $61.26, suggesting the stock is currently 50% overvalued against the $122.57 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.0B
Cash & equivalents
$3.5B
Total debt
$18.8B
Shares outstanding
456M