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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$98.70
Intrinsic $131.60 · 25% MOS
Current price: $103.70
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Dollar General Corp (DG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 4.2% for years 1–5 and 2.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 4.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $131.60 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $98.70, suggesting the stock is currently 5% overvalued against the $103.70 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Cash & equivalents
$1.4B
Total debt
$15.8B
Shares outstanding
222M