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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$25.57
Intrinsic $34.10 · 25% MOS
Current price: $32.49
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 12.4% for years 1–5 and 6.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 12.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.5B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $34.10 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $25.57, suggesting the stock is currently 21% overvalued against the $32.49 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Cash & equivalents
$871M
Total debt
$5.2B
Shares outstanding
1.3B