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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$251.58
Intrinsic $335.45 · 25% MOS
Current price: $158.80
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Brinker International, Inc (EAT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 12.8% for years 1–5 and 6.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 12.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $504M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $335.45 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $251.58, suggesting the stock is currently 58% undervalued against the $158.80 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$504M
Cash & equivalents
$57M
Total debt
$1.8B
Shares outstanding
45M