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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$20.81
Intrinsic $27.75 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.4% for years 1–5 and 1.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $172M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $27.75 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $20.81.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$172M
Cash & equivalents
$235M
Total debt
$2.1B
Shares outstanding
48M