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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$81.34
Intrinsic $108.46 · 25% MOS
Current price: $173.54
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 6.1% for years 1–5 and 3.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 6.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $361M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $108.46 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $81.34, suggesting the stock is currently 53% overvalued against the $173.54 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$361M
Cash & equivalents
$215M
Total debt
$1.1B
Shares outstanding
66M