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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$51.83
Intrinsic $69.10 · 25% MOS
Current price: $137.81
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $18.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $69.10 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $51.83, suggesting the stock is currently 62% overvalued against the $137.81 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$18.8B
Cash & equivalents
$8.4B
Total debt
$47.7B
Shares outstanding
4.1B