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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$90.38
Intrinsic $120.50 · 25% MOS
Current price: $173.63
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Chevron Corp (CVX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $13.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $120.50 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $90.38, suggesting the stock is currently 48% overvalued against the $173.63 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$13.8B
Cash & equivalents
$6.3B
Total debt
$5.8B
Shares outstanding
2.0B