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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$449.41
Intrinsic $599.22 · 25% MOS
Current price: $244.61
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 14.5% for years 1–5 and 7.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 14.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $5.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $599.22 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $449.41, suggesting the stock is currently 84% undervalued against the $244.61 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$5.7B
Cash & equivalents
$2.2B
Total debt
$34.3B
Shares outstanding
295M