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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$297.79
Intrinsic $397.05 · 25% MOS
Current price: $111.21
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Conocophillips (COP) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 30.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($10.0B) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $397.05 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $297.79, suggesting the stock is currently 168% undervalued against the $111.21 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($10.0B) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$10.0B
Cash & equivalents
$6.4B
Total debt
$23.3B
Shares outstanding
1.2B