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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$241.49
Intrinsic $321.98 · 25% MOS
Current price: $37.77
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($1.7B) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $321.98 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $241.49, suggesting the stock is currently 539% undervalued against the $37.77 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$684M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($1.7B) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$1.7B
Cash & equivalents
$542M
Total debt
$3.6B
Shares outstanding
121M