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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$25.78
Intrinsic $34.37 · 25% MOS
Current price: $27.68
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Cvr Energy Inc (CVI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.2% for years 1–5 and 2.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $222M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $34.37 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $25.78, suggesting the stock is currently 7% overvalued against the $27.68 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$222M
Cash & equivalents
$512M
Total debt
$1.7B
Shares outstanding
101M