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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$165.00
Intrinsic $219.99 · 25% MOS
Current price: $207.43
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 12.0% for years 1–5 and 6.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 12.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.6B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $219.99 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $165.00, suggesting the stock is currently 20% overvalued against the $207.43 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.6B
Cash & equivalents
$118M
Total debt
$14.1B
Shares outstanding
309M