/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$23.73
Intrinsic $31.64 · 25% MOS
Current price: $158.83
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Vistra Corp. (VST) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $31.64 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $23.73, suggesting the stock is currently 85% overvalued against the $158.83 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Cash & equivalents
$634M
Total debt
$21.1B
Shares outstanding
342M