Vistra Corp.
References in this report to "we," "our," "us," and "the Company" are to Vistra and/or its subsidiaries, as apparent in the context. General Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential power resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine.
$140.83
-$15.31 (-9.81%)
Live
10.75% operating margin is respectable but not wide. ROIC at 7.11%. Suggests the business covers its cost of capital, but doesn't point to a wide moat.
Revenue growth slowed to 3.0%, essentially flat. Margins also contracted 12.9pp. This is a business that needs a catalyst.
Free cash flow declined 47% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened. ROIC dropped from 15.10% to 7.11%, capital efficiency is deteriorating.
23.7x earnings, 21.0x FCF. Valuation is in a reasonable range. The main question is whether the business can re-accelerate or if current trajectory is already priced in.
Price History
Valuation & Multiples
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$19.21B
▲ +3.0% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$2.22B
▼ -64.5% YoY
Op. Margin
18.55%
▼ -12.9pp YoY
ROIC
11.82%
▼ -8.0pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$2.25B
▼ -47.0% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$5.12B
▼ -10.8% YoY
Net Debt
$21.04B
Cash & Equiv.
$435M
5Y CAGR: +9.2%
5Y CAGR: -8.7%
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SourceComputed from the 10-Q filed 3 Aug 2026, covering the period ending 30 Jun 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 12 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, live as of 22 Oct 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec. Sector medians are approximate S&P 500 benchmarks and update periodically.
Is Vistra (VST) overvalued?
At a P/E of 23.7 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 21.0, Vistra (VST) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $53.18 per share, so at $140.83 the stock looks overvalued (62.2% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Vistra scores 62/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a solid business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 0.7%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology, or see how the market compares in our US profitability statistics. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Vistra's fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $53.18 per share for VST, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $39.89. At today's $140.83, that puts the stock about 62.2% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Is Vistra a high-quality business?+
Vistra scores 62 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a solid business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 18.5% operating margin and a 11.8% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
Does Vistra (VST) pay a dividend, and how much?+
Yes, Vistra pays a regular dividend of about $0.91 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 0.7% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 13.9% of earnings, so the dividend is amply covered by earnings. Vistra has grown the dividend at roughly 1.4% a year over the past few years. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For VST's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.
Is Vistra a good stock to buy right now?+
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. VST currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 62/100 on quality (solid). It also yields about 0.7%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
Related stocks: Electric Services
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in VST's SEC filings or
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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