/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$104.41
Intrinsic $139.21 · 25% MOS
Current price: $215.85
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Waste Management Inc (WM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.4% for years 1–5 and 3.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3.3B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $139.21 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $104.41, suggesting the stock is currently 52% overvalued against the $215.85 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.3B
Cash & equivalents
$158M
Total debt
$22.9B
Shares outstanding
404M