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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$38.48
Intrinsic $51.31 · 25% MOS
Current price: $155.12
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.9% for years 1–5 and 2.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $51.31 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $38.48, suggesting the stock is currently 75% overvalued against the $155.12 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash & equivalents
$112M
Total debt
$9.4B
Shares outstanding
256M