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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$22.91
Intrinsic $30.54 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 11.5% for years 1–5 and 5.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 11.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $102M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $30.54 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $22.91.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$102M
Cash & equivalents
$127M
Total debt
$1.3B
Shares outstanding
64M