/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$54.15
Intrinsic $72.21 · 25% MOS
Current price: $276.51
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Modine Manufacturing Co (MOD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 16.7% for years 1–5 and 8.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 16.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $105M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $72.21 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $54.15, suggesting the stock is currently 80% overvalued against the $276.51 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$105M
Cash & equivalents
$74M
Total debt
$582M
Shares outstanding
54M