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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$37.20
Intrinsic $49.59 · 25% MOS
Current price: $56.75
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 0.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $194M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $49.59 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $37.20, suggesting the stock is currently 34% overvalued against the $56.75 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$194M
Cash & equivalents
$37M
Total debt
$1.6B
Shares outstanding
36M