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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$115.38
Intrinsic $153.84 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for J&J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 14.5% for years 1–5 and 7.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 14.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($83M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $153.84 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $115.38.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($83M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$83M
Cash & equivalents
$60M
Total debt
$193M
Shares outstanding
19M