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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$10.08
Intrinsic $13.45 · 25% MOS
Current price: $7.02
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 20.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $42M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $13.45 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $10.08, suggesting the stock is currently 44% undervalued against the $7.02 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$42M
Cash & equivalents
$74M
Total debt
$1.0B
Shares outstanding
88M