DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$19.06
Intrinsic $25.41 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.0% for years 1–5 and 1.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $146M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $25.41 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $19.06.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$146M
Cash & equivalents
$107M
Total debt
$450M
Shares outstanding
92M