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Company Overview GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries ( GXO, the Company, our, or we ), is the largest pure-play contract logistics provider in the world and a foremost innovator in the industry. We provide our customers with high-value-added warehousing and distribution, order fulfillment, e-commerce, reverse logistics and other supply chain services differentiated by our abilit…
$54.05
$0.50 (-0.92%)
EOD Jul 17, 2026
Operating margin is thin at 1.86%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.
Revenue grew 12.5%, still solid. Free cash flow declined 42% despite revenue growth, conversion is weakening.
At 48x earnings, the current multiple leaves limited room for execution misses or growth deceleration. Free cash flow declined 42% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened.
48.3x earnings, 50.1x FCF. The market is pricing in years of above-average growth. If that thesis breaks, downside from multiple compression alone could be 30%+. This is a stock where you're paying for the future, not the present.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$13.50B
▲ +12.5% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$132M
▼ -76.1% YoY
Op. Margin
2.52%
ROIC
2.90%
▼ -0.7pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$125M
▼ -42.1% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$436M
▼ -20.9% YoY
Net Debt
$5.54B
Cash & Equiv.
$794M
5Y CAGR: +16.3%
5Y CAGR: -0.2%
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At a P/E of 48.3 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 50.1, GXO Logistics (GXO) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $-29.13 per share, so at $54.05 the stock looks overvalued (153.9% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, GXO Logistics scores 36/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $-29.13 per share for GXO, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $-21.85. At today's $54.05, that puts the stock about 153.9% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
GXO Logistics scores 36 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 2.5% operating margin and a 2.9% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. GXO currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 36/100 on quality (lower-quality). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.