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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-21.85
Intrinsic $-29.13 · 25% MOS
Current price: $48.64
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $125M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $-29.13 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-21.85, suggesting the stock is currently 145% overvalued against the $48.64 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$125M
Cash & equivalents
$794M
Total debt
$6.3B
Shares outstanding
116M