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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$93.44
Intrinsic $124.59 · 25% MOS
Current price: $160.61
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Expeditors International Of Washington Inc (EXPD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 2.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $921M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $124.59 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $93.44, suggesting the stock is currently 42% overvalued against the $160.61 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$921M
Cash & equivalents
$1.3B
Total debt
$565M
Shares outstanding
134M