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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$256.27
Intrinsic $341.70 · 25% MOS
Current price: $97.37
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Brinks Co (BCO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 11.9% for years 1–5 and 6.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 11.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $544M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $341.70 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $256.27, suggesting the stock is currently 163% undervalued against the $97.37 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$544M
Cash & equivalents
$1.5B
Total debt
$4.5B
Shares outstanding
42M