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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$44.58
Intrinsic $59.43 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.7% for years 1–5 and 6.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $113M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $59.43 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $44.58.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$113M
Cash & equivalents
$120M
Total debt
$499M
Shares outstanding
60M