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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$31.20
Intrinsic $41.61 · 25% MOS
Current price: $201.79
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for XPO, Inc. (XPO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.4% for years 1–5 and 1.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $458M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $41.61 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $31.20, suggesting the stock is currently 85% overvalued against the $201.79 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$458M
Cash & equivalents
$237M
Total debt
$3.9B
Shares outstanding
119M