/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$3.73
Intrinsic $4.97 · 25% MOS
Current price: $4.71
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for VERRA MOBILITY Corp (VRRM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $105M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $4.97 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $3.73, suggesting the stock is currently 21% overvalued against the $4.71 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$105M
Cash & equivalents
$53M
Total debt
$1.1B
Shares outstanding
154M