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Not financial advice. Analytical data for research only.
Intrinsiqq is a Netherlands-based company operating in Rotterdam, KvK 73238007.
References to we, us, our, Green Plains, or the company refer to Green Plains Inc. and its subsidiaries. Overview Incorporated in Iowa, Green Plains is a renewable fuels and agricultural technology company focused on producing low-cost, low-CI ethanol and related co-products, including high protein feeds and corn oil from locally sourced corn.
$14.83
$0.39 (-2.56%)
Live · 07:17 PM
The business is unprofitable at the operating level (-3.22% margin). The thesis depends entirely on whether and when it reaches sustainable profitability.
Revenue declined 14.9% YoY. The question is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift.
Even for strong businesses, today's 9x P/E means the stock needs to keep delivering. There's no margin of safety if growth disappoints.
8.8x earnings, 9.8x FCF. The multiple is below average. Either the market is pricing in deterioration you should investigate, or there's genuine value here.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$1.83B
▼ -14.9% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$124M
▼ -47.0% YoY
Op. Margin
7.44%
▼ -1.3pp YoY
ROIC
8.30%
▼ -1.4pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$127M
▲ +158.9% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$154M
▲ +470.0% YoY
Net Debt
$363M
Cash & Equiv.
$185M
5Y CAGR: +1.7%
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SourceComputed from the 10-Q filed 6 Aug 2026, covering the period ending 30 Jun 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 7 Aug 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, live as of 3 Sept 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec. Sector medians are approximate S&P 500 benchmarks and update periodically.
At a P/E of 8.8 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 9.8, Green Plains (GPRE) trades below a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $71.81 per share, so at $14.83 the stock looks undervalued (384.2% below estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Green Plains scores 53/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a mixed business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 0.1%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $71.81 per share for GPRE, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $53.85. At today's $14.83, that puts the stock about 384.2% below estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Green Plains scores 53 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 7 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a mixed business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 7.4% operating margin and a 8.3% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
Yes, Green Plains pays a regular dividend of about $0.01 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 0.1% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 0.6% of earnings, so the dividend is amply covered by earnings. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For GPRE's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. GPRE currently trades below its estimated intrinsic value and scores 53/100 on quality (mixed). It also yields about 0.1%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.