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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$40.63
Intrinsic $54.17 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 35.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $99M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $54.17 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $40.63.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$99M
Cash & equivalents
$96M
Total debt
$559M
Shares outstanding
84M