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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$34.06
Intrinsic $45.42 · 25% MOS
Current price: $83.49
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.3B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $45.42 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $34.06, suggesting the stock is currently 59% overvalued against the $83.49 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.3B
Cash & equivalents
$3.1B
Total debt
$8.8B
Shares outstanding
365M