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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
¥1049.86
Intrinsic ¥1399.82 · 25% MOS
Current price: ¥111.61
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow (¥18.7B) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of ¥1399.82 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of ¥1049.86, suggesting the stock is currently 841% undervalued against the ¥111.61 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-¥7.8B). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF (¥18.7B) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
¥18.7B
Cash & equivalents
¥115.3B
Total debt
¥97.1B
Shares outstanding
346M