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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$493.54
Intrinsic $658.06 · 25% MOS
Current price: $469.71
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for AppLovin Corp (APP) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 65.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $4.4B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $658.06 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $493.54, suggesting the stock is currently 5% undervalued against the $469.71 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$4.4B
Cash & equivalents
$2.8B
Total debt
$3.5B
Shares outstanding
339M