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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$10.65
Intrinsic $14.19 · 25% MOS
Current price: $59.37
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Alcoa Corp (AA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $287M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $14.19 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $10.65, suggesting the stock is currently 82% overvalued against the $59.37 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$287M
Cash & equivalents
$1.4B
Total debt
$2.6B
Shares outstanding
266M