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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$11.63
Intrinsic $15.51 · 25% MOS
Current price: $66.43
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Century Aluminum Co (CENX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 37.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $27M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $15.51 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $11.63, suggesting the stock is currently 82% overvalued against the $66.43 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$27M
Cash & equivalents
$244M
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
105M