Intrinsiqq
Alcoa Corporation logoAlcoa CorporationAA
$38.70-4.98%
Alcoa Corporation logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA

$38.70

-$2.03 (-4.98%)

⊜ Compare
ProfitabilityN/AGrowthSteady growthCash FlowThin conversionValuationAttractively priced
What's changing

Revenue grew 7.9%, steady but not accelerating.

What deserves caution

Even for strong businesses, today's 8x P/E means the stock needs to keep delivering. There's no margin of safety if growth disappoints.

Valuation context

8.0x earnings, 29.0x FCF. The multiple is below average. Either the market is pricing in deterioration you should investigate, or there's genuine value here.

Price History

+8.6%

Valuation & Multiples

Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares

Market Cap$10.21B
EPS$4.81
P/E8.05
P/FCF29.02
EV/EBITDA—
FCF Yield3.4%
Div. Yield1.03%
Net Debt/FCF2.5x
52-Week Range
$35.26$83.79

Profitability & Returns

Revenue (TTM)

$13.60B

▲ +7.9% YoY

Net Income (TTM)

$1.28B

▲ +1828.3% YoY

Op. Margin

—

ROIC

—

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

FCF (TTM)

$352M

▲ +1250.0% YoY

Op. Cash Flow (TTM)

$1.05B

▲ +90.5% YoY

Net Debt

$873M

Cash & Equiv.

$1.35B

5Y CAGR: +6.7%

5Y CAGR: +69.1%

Continue Research

SourceComputed from the 10-Q filed 27 Jul 2026, covering the period ending 30 Jun 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 3 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.

Price from market data, last close as of 22 Oct 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec. Sector medians are approximate S&P 500 benchmarks and update periodically.

Is Alcoa (AA) overvalued?

At a P/E of 8.0 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 29.0, Alcoa (AA) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $19.65 per share, so at $38.70 the stock looks overvalued (49.2% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.

On quality, Alcoa scores 27/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 1.0%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology, or see how the market compares in our US profitability statistics. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently asked

What is Alcoa's fair value?+

Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $19.65 per share for AA, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $14.74. At today's $38.70, that puts the stock about 49.2% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.

Is Alcoa a high-quality business?+

Alcoa scores 27 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 6 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.

Does Alcoa (AA) pay a dividend, and how much?+

Yes, Alcoa pays a regular dividend of about $0.39 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 1.0% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 8.2% of earnings, so the dividend is amply covered by earnings. Alcoa has grown the dividend at roughly 53.0% a year over the past few years. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For AA's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.

Is Alcoa a good stock to buy right now?+

That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. AA currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 27/100 on quality (lower-quality). It also yields about 1.0%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.

Related stocks: Primary Production of Aluminum

Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in AA's SEC filings or

Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.

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Intrinsiqq is a Netherlands-based company operating in Rotterdam, KvK 73238007.