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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
¥0.68
Intrinsic ¥0.91 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for ZKH Group Ltd (ZKH) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow (¥150M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of ¥0.91 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of ¥0.68.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-¥44M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF (¥150M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
¥150M
Cash & equivalents
¥1.9B
Total debt
¥427M
Shares outstanding
5.7B