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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$26.42
Intrinsic $35.22 · 25% MOS
Current price: $43.68
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Fastenal Co (FAST) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.7% for years 1–5 and 6.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $35.22 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $26.42, suggesting the stock is currently 40% overvalued against the $43.68 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash & equivalents
$309M
Total debt
$446M
Shares outstanding
1.2B