Choose a model
Each card values Swatch a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Swatch on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at its industry's median P/E
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Last twelve months
CHF 0.42
Earnings in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
CHF 0.42
Price in 2031
CHF 0.42 × 17.5 P/E
CHF 7.29
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
CHF 4.53
Plus dividends
CHF 22.50 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ CHF 17.06
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
CHF 21.59
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
CHF 16.19
Paying CHF 173.55 instead gives -29.7% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
CHF 21.59
Expected return
-29.7% a year
Future price, 2031
CHF 7.29
Buy below
CHF 16.19
Price 704% above fair valuePrice CHF 173.55, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Swatch Group. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
The default base case is 79% below today's price. A gap that wide usually comes from unusual cash flow history, such as a jump from a low base or a gap in the reported figures, not from a real bargain or bubble. Check the free cash flow history below and set growth you believe before relying on it.
Conservative
CHF 34.62
80% below the priceof CHF 173.55
Buy below CHF 25.97 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
CHF 36.77
79% below the priceof CHF 173.55
Buy below CHF 27.57 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
CHF 39.09
77% below the priceof CHF 173.55
Buy below CHF 29.32 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Either the growth inputs are more cautious than the market's, or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
CHF 56M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-43.8%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
40.6%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
59%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 40.6% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -43.8% a year.
Swatch (UHR.XSWX) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Swatch's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for UHR.XSWX; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Swatch's (UHR.XSWX) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Swatch's fair value is about CHF 21.59 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of CHF 0.42 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 17.5 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow CHF 27.49, revenue CHF 121.04, dividends CHF 124.82. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Swatch overvalued?+
At CHF 173.55, the price is 704% above that fair value of CHF 21.59, and buying at today's price would return about -29.7% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Swatch valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its industry's median.
What is a good margin of safety for Swatch?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at CHF 16.19. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Luxury Goods · Pick stocks to compare with UHR.XSWX
Held by ETFs
UHR.XSWX is in 58 US ETFs. The largest of them, with UHR.XSWX's weight in each:
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETFVEA0.02%of the fund
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETFIEFA0.02%of the fund
Schwab International Equity ETFSCHF0.02%of the fund
State Street SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETFSPDW0.02%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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