Choose a model
Each card values SIG a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
SIG on free cash flow: free cash flow per share, the cash left after investment, grows and is priced at a normal multiple.
Years to project
Growth of free cash flow per share
Free cash flow per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/FCF
Starts at its own median P/FCF over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's free cash flow per share
Last twelve months
€0.60
Free cash flow in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
€0.60
Price in 2031
€0.60 × 27.7 P/FCF
€16.65
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
€10.34
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
€10.34
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
€7.76
Paying €16.33 instead gives 0.4% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
€10.34
Expected return
0.4% a year
Future price, 2031
€16.65
Buy below
€7.76
Price 58% above fair valuePrice €16.33, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for SIG Group. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
€3.90
76% below the priceof €16.33
Buy below €2.93 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
€5.28
68% below the priceof €16.33
Buy below €3.96 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
€6.78
58% below the priceof €16.33
Buy below €5.09 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Either the growth inputs are more cautious than the market's, or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
€230M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-4.2%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
13.7%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
59%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 13.7% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -4.2% a year.
SIG (SIGN.XSWX) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of SIG's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for SIGN.XSWX; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is SIG's (SIGN.XSWX) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, SIG's fair value is about €10.34 a share, based on its free cash flow per share. That assumes free cash flow per share of €0.60 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 27.7 times free cash flow, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: revenue €20.49. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is SIG overvalued?+
At €16.33, the price is 58% above that fair value of €10.34, and buying at today's price would return about 0.4% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the SIG valuation assume?+
Free cash flow per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for SIG?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at €7.76. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Packaging & Containers · Pick stocks to compare with SIGN.XSWX
Held by ETFs
SIGN.XSWX is in 34 US ETFs. The largest of them, with SIGN.XSWX's weight in each:
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETFVEA0.02%of the fund
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETFIEFA0.02%of the fund
Schwab International Equity ETFSCHF0.02%of the fund
State Street SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETFSPDW0.02%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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