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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$85.34
Intrinsic $113.79 · 25% MOS
Current price: $141.18
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 1.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $113.79 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $85.34, suggesting the stock is currently 40% overvalued against the $141.18 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Cash & equivalents
$102M
Total debt
$11.2B
Shares outstanding
176M