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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$63.56
Intrinsic $84.74 · 25% MOS
Current price: $202.70
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 0.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $84.74 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $63.56, suggesting the stock is currently 69% overvalued against the $202.70 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.2B
Cash & equivalents
$543M
Total debt
$29.0B
Shares outstanding
325M