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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$178.47
Intrinsic $237.96 · 25% MOS
Current price: $96.19
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for J M SMUCKER Co (SJM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 10.0% for years 1–5 and 5.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 10.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $237.96 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $178.47, suggesting the stock is currently 86% undervalued against the $96.19 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash & equivalents
$59M
Total debt
$7.1B
Shares outstanding
107M