Intrinsiqq
Shoe Carnival Inc. logoShoe Carnival Inc.SCVL
$13.22-2.44%
Shoe Carnival Inc. logo

Shoe Carnival Inc.

SCVL

$13.22

-$0.33 (-2.44%)

⊜ Compare
ProfitabilityThin marginsGrowthDecliningCash FlowHealthy conversionValuationFairly valued
What stands out

Operating margin is thin at 5.88%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.

What's changing

Revenue declined 5.6% YoY. The question is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift.

What deserves caution

Free cash flow declined 62% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened. ROIC dropped from 6.90% to 4.68%, capital efficiency is deteriorating.

Valuation context

15.0x earnings, 5.4x FCF. Valuation is in a reasonable range. The main question is whether the business can re-accelerate or if current trajectory is already priced in.

Price History

-34.1%

Valuation & Multiples

Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares

Market Cap$359M
EPS$0.88
P/E15.02
P/FCF5.40
EV/EBITDA8.80
FCF Yield18.5%
Div. Yield4.97%
Net Debt/FCF3.4x
52-Week Range
$12.28$21.28

Profitability & Returns

Revenue (TTM)

$1.11B

▼ -5.6% YoY

Net Income (TTM)

$24M

▼ -29.1% YoY

Op. Margin

2.82%

▼ -1.7pp YoY

ROIC

1.97%

▼ -2.2pp YoY

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

FCF (TTM)

$67M

▼ -61.7% YoY

Op. Cash Flow (TTM)

$102M

▼ -30.5% YoY

Net Debt

$223M

Cash & Equiv.

$132M

5Y CAGR: +3.1%

5Y CAGR: -12.2%

Continue Research

SourceComputed from the 10-Q filed 4 Sept 2026, covering the period ending 1 Aug 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 11 Sept 2026. How this is calculated.

Price from market data, last close as of 21 Oct 2026. Fiscal year ends Jan. Sector medians are approximate S&P 500 benchmarks and update periodically.

Is Shoe Carnival (SCVL) overvalued?

At a P/E of 15.0 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 5.4, Shoe Carnival (SCVL) trades below a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $34.06 per share, so at $13.22 the stock looks undervalued (157.6% below estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.

On quality, Shoe Carnival scores 32/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 5.0%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology, or see how the market compares in our US profitability statistics. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently asked

What is Shoe Carnival's fair value?+

Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $34.06 per share for SCVL, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $25.54. At today's $13.22, that puts the stock about 157.6% below estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.

Is Shoe Carnival a high-quality business?+

Shoe Carnival scores 32 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 2.8% operating margin and a 2.0% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.

Does Shoe Carnival (SCVL) pay a dividend, and how much?+

Yes, Shoe Carnival pays a regular dividend of about $0.65 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 5.0% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 73.4% of earnings, so the dividend is covered, with less cushion. Shoe Carnival has grown the dividend at roughly 20.3% a year over the past few years. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For SCVL's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.

Is Shoe Carnival a good stock to buy right now?+

That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. SCVL currently trades below its estimated intrinsic value and scores 32/100 on quality (lower-quality). It also yields about 5.0%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.

Related stocks: Retail-Shoe Stores

Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in SCVL's SEC filings or

Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.

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Not financial advice. Analytical data for research only.

Intrinsiqq is a Netherlands-based company operating in Rotterdam, KvK 73238007.