PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Intrinsic Value

With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's fair value is about $16.68 a share, based on its dividend per share. That assumes dividend per share of $1.60 grows about 1.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at a 10.0% dividend yield, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings $13.00, revenue $13.36, book value $13.68. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.

At $8.28, the price is 50% below that fair value of $16.68, and buying at today's price would return about 24.8% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.

Dividend per share grows about 1.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at today's yield.

A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $12.51. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.