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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-10.10
Intrinsic $-13.47 · 25% MOS
Current price: $31.91
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 4.0% for years 1–5 and 2.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 4.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($16M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $-13.47 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-10.10, suggesting the stock is currently 132% overvalued against the $31.91 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($16M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$16M
Cash & equivalents
$38M
Total debt
$1.1B
Shares outstanding
55M