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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-0.12
Intrinsic $-0.16 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $17M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $-0.16 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-0.12.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$17M
Cash & equivalents
$21M
Total debt
$325M
Shares outstanding
23M